Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 167.955587 196.823954 230.518208 273.091653 325.933660 390.005243 4.745561e+02
2025-11-09 128.065667 161.872749 205.353841 266.494737 352.101874 470.623574 6.525355e+02
2025-11-16 104.595148 139.443908 187.497223 260.664401 373.128440 546.484282 8.492350e+02
2025-11-23 88.652427 123.087245 173.193966 254.465223 389.309945 617.028040 1.063187e+03
2025-11-30 82.478526 119.103250 175.279464 272.361397 446.667046 771.184386 1.494334e+03
2025-12-07 74.568929 111.007477 169.251806 275.148819 478.017543 888.321243 1.913432e+03
2025-12-14 68.839572 105.363774 166.006653 281.646144 517.417461 1035.002622 2.490483e+03
2025-12-21 63.002692 98.676297 159.819907 281.236768 542.550238 1159.790806 3.097786e+03
2025-12-28 60.862202 97.886090 163.730992 300.895384 616.022209 1431.317572 4.386587e+03
2026-01-04 58.290047 95.961238 165.187456 315.760737 683.183214 1719.922375 6.061470e+03
2026-01-11 55.602835 93.468252 165.137535 327.317869 746.022784 2030.605055 8.261591e+03
2026-01-18 52.554149 89.935288 162.511597 332.521783 794.046538 2322.894679 1.087026e+04
2026-01-25 49.257340 85.722839 158.249269 333.873729 834.612787 2626.194012 1.426826e+04
2026-02-01 45.568931 80.382044 150.983568 326.642995 848.298297 2841.256237 1.766233e+04
2026-02-08 42.301324 75.553208 144.216565 319.441777 860.318453 3062.698081 2.185885e+04
2026-02-15 39.344263 71.064814 137.644879 311.535780 867.851702 3273.959147 2.682187e+04
2026-02-22 38.860342 71.581691 142.264246 334.641332 991.342473 4170.666877 4.514916e+04
2026-03-01 37.096266 69.239795 140.037274 338.251648 1046.271906 4765.607774 6.434964e+04
2026-03-08 35.766703 67.694737 139.483888 346.665075 1124.271710 5602.369956 9.923085e+04
2026-03-15 34.037916 65.124823 136.159704 346.135053 1166.169448 6261.489106 1.417201e+05
2026-03-22 33.789786 65.791601 140.858445 371.661498 1335.046408 8166.149122 2.987239e+05
2026-03-29 33.192119 65.611255 143.407357 391.038358 1488.495834 10301.776958 6.414670e+05
2026-04-05 32.407323 64.925941 144.565321 406.145793 1631.446485 12727.471384 1.461367e+06